After a weak year in predictions for 2024, I am back with 4 new ones for 2025. I am touching on autonomous vehicles, private equity, the Bears, and federal policymaking.
- The leader in ride-hailing in San Francisco will be Waymo
I’ve enjoyed following Waymo’s dramatic rise in ride volumes over that last 18 months, to end the year with 22% market share for ride hailing in San Francisco. I think this growth will continue and surpass Uber in ride hailing rides in that market by the end of the year.
Overall I think it will be a huge year for autonomous driving, even with GM pulling the plug on Cruise. We’ll see more deployments from Zoox and May Mobility, and see more slow and steady growth from Waymo (although unfortunately not in Chicago yet — my impression is that the lidar doesn’t do well with snow currently).
(full disclosure, I saw the smart Fred Wilson make a similar prediction before I made mine, so if it comes true he gets partial credit)
2. Private Credit Explodes
Private credit has been growing dramatically, by 10x since 2007 and is now a major component of the private equity space. It’s a gold rush right now, with large financial institutions like Blackrock acquiring private credit firms for billions.
Given the rapid growth, lower regulation, and enthusiasm for the space, it seems extremely likely that there will be a deflating event that roils the private credit space and leads to consolidation and the failure of a fund. I might be a year or two early here, we shall see.
3. The Chicago Bears will sport a winning record through the end of 2025 (but not get a new lakefront stadium)
Perhaps it is aspirational thinking after the recent past, but I think there is a high likelihood the Bears will improve their record significantly in 2025. Just reversion to the mean should help some, while Caleb Williams should get some offensive line help and the team will continue to play relatively weaker teams as a result of finishing last in their division. The biggest headwind will be the NFC North, which will again likely be the toughest in the NFL.
One area they aren’t going to win is getting subsidized by the State of Illinois to build a new stadium on the lakefront. I look forward to seeing that ill-thought-out plan fizzle, and am guessing the team will refocus on developing the site in Arlington Heights. Fun fact — because of creative financing, taxpayers actually owe more on 20-year old Soldier Field remodeling project than when the project was completed.
4. New Administration: Tech over MAGA
This iteration of Trump has an interesting mix of bedfellows with MAGA hardliners and silicon valley tech billionaires at the same table. I think in 2025, the tech billionaires will have the upper hand and get policies favorable to them (related to crypto regulation, tax policy, etc…). This is not to say that the President won’t advance many of his traditional priorities at the same time, but when push comes to shove, I think the tech folks will have the inside track since their priorities are closely aligned with a rising stock market (which I think is a critical KPI for the incoming administration), whereas most of the MAGA flavored policies are inflationary and/or bad for the economy.
With any luck, I, along with the Bears, will show improvement in our records this coming year — time will tell!
