Grading My 2024 Predictions

Ian Adams
2 min readJan 2, 2025

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I am taking advantage of having my kids back in daycare to get back to my annual prediction cycle. First, grading my 2024 predictions:

  1. The Ravens win the Super Bowl

Grade: Wrong — again!

The Ravens were rock solid last January until they played what was probably their worst game of the year against the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs. I like them this year too, but I guess I should stop betting against Andy Reid (or Josh Allen for that matter).

2. Biden gets re-elected, but Democrats lose the Senate

Grade: Half right, but way wrong

Technically one of these things came true, but it didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that the Senate was an uphill battle for Democrats in 2024. Obviously my presidential prediction was extremely wrong; perhaps the best thing about this prediction is that I abstained from making one about the House, so wasn’t even more wrong.

3. Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses influence the influencers

Grade: Right

So I don’t spend a whole lot of time following influencers, and had heard a flat zero about these glasses since I made this prediction. But, after googling news on the subject, turns out I nailed this one.

Meta’s Ray-Ban Smart Glasses are outselling traditional Ray-Bans in some stores, and are showing up on lists of favorite items of journalists and influencers like at Tom’s Guide.

At the time, I said I didn’t know how people would use these devices, and still don’t, although (in addition to having a set of speakers on you all the time), it seems like there will be a lot of opportunity to leverage generative AI here, presumably with a long term goal of usurping your phone as the primary computing device you interact with.

4. A new kid on the block for generative AI

Grade: Mostly Wrong

There are a bunch of relevant players out there, from Anthropic, to Google’s Gemini (which I think has a lot of potential because of all the effort they have put into user interface and voice interaction), but OpenAI still seems like the clear leader to me here. That said, I am very confident in the future we’ll be engaging with AI with new and different applications, even if I was wrong this year.

So, looking back at 2024, I had 1 right, one half right, and two wrong — a little worse than I usually do. I’ll come back to predictions in a couple of days with my new predictions for 2025.

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Ian Adams
Ian Adams

Written by Ian Adams

I work at Evergreen Climate Innovations in Chicago. I’m passionate about clean energy, innovation, and market driven solutions.

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